• 06 Oct, 2022

Can Sunak win UK PM Election?

Can Sunak win UK PM Election?

Can Sunak win UK PM Election?

Balloting for the leadership position of the Conservative Party, and by extension the Prime Ministerial position, closed on Friday September 2. Counting of ballots will commence. The party has some 200,000 members all of who are eligible to vote. Turnout is expected to be very high to choose between Liz Truss , an Anglo Saxon British and Rishi Sunak, an Indian born Briton of East African parents who were expelled from Africa. Can Sunak pull it off?   
 
It is not known how many Guyanese, Trinis, and other Caribbean and South Asian nationalities are members of the Conservative Party. Guyanese and Trinis I spoke within the UK say they favor Sunak, but they are not party members and as such can’t vote.   
Who is likely to win the contest? Polls have consistently predicted that Liz Truss will win by a landslide. She had trailed Sunak in three earlier rounding of voting that narrowed the down the contest between the top two contenders. It would take a major upset and a miracle for Sunak to close the gap. He may narrow the gap from almost two to one to a closer contest but hardly likely to win. Ethnicity influences voting in UK as it does almost in every country. Many White voters told researchers that they can’t support Sunak. They said they do not consider Sunak British because he is not White. A majority of those polled who will vote in general elections say they prefer Sunak over Truss as PM.   
Whoever wins the leadership contest and PM position will call early elections. In a general election, polls show Truss going down to defeat to the opposition Labor Party. Sunak has a better chance of defeating Labor at the next elections and Conservatives retaining power.     
    
Research into the voting members suggests that 44% of the membership 97% of the membership is white and 44% are over 65 years of age. Older voters lean towards Liz Truss, making it almost impossible for Sunak to win. The winner will be announced on Monday. Boris Johnson will resign on Tuesday, and the new Prime Minister sworn in right after. Johnson is not backing Sunak whose resignation as Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) and criticism of Johnson’s indiscretions led to the PM’s fall from grace and his eventual resignation. Johnson has not forgiven Sunak for not sticking to him.    
Truss, the Foreign Secretary, remained with Johnson. If she prevails, she is likely to offer the Exchequer position to Sunak, who in all likelihood will decline. Cabinet members who backed Truss, including South Asians, are likely to return to the cabinet.   

Dr Vishnu Bisram

Dr. Vishnu Bisram is Guyanese born who received his primary and secondary education in Guyana and tertiary education in the US and India. He is a holder of multiple degrees in the natural sciences, social sciences, and education. He taught for over forty years in the US. He is a specialist on the Indian diaspora traveling globally to research and write about Indian communities.