• 24 Jun, 2024

Dr Bisram’s Guyana Poll -- PPP heading for Avalanche Victory in LGE 2023; 75% to PNC’s 22%

Dr Bisram’s Guyana Poll -- PPP heading for Avalanche Victory in LGE 2023; 75% to PNC’s 22%

Dr Bisram’s Guyana Poll -- PPP heading for Avalanche Victory in LGE 2023; 75% to PNC’s 22%

The support of the PPP, the party governing at the center, is rolling a political avalanche overpowering the opposition African based APNU (PNC) and its partner affiliates and other political outfits and independents for Monday’s (June 12) local government elections. This is the latest finding of an ongoing opinion tracking poll conducted by Dr Vishnu Bisram to determine the outcome and support of voting in the 80 local authority areas (LAAs) that is divided into 10 municipalities and 70 neighborhood councils (NDCs).
 
The tracking opinion survey is being undertaken by Dr Vishnu Bisram who has been conducting surveys in Guyana and the Caribbean since the 1980s. Dr Bisram, holder of multiple doctorates, studied in USA and India. He is a well regarded political analyst in the Caribbean conducting election surveys in the Caribbean. The ongoing opinion tracking poll in Guyana is based on the views of some 2300 respondents thru June 10 to reflect the demographics of the population. The findings have been analyzed at a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of 4% was found meaning support varies by 4%.
Based on the findings of the survey, the PPP is projected to garner some 72% support and the opposition APNU 20%, all others 4%, and 4% unknown or undecided or unwilling to reveal their choices. On the basis of the findings, the PPP is projected to capture 75% of the constituencies and PNC 22% with 3% too close to call.
 

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The findings reveal that voters are polarized along ethnic lines. Almost all Indians are voting PPP with hardly any voting for APNU whose support comes primarily from Africans and Mixed. The PPP is attracting racial cross over support in every LAA including in traditional PNC strongholds. In addition, the findings of the survey suggest that the PNC has been losing momentum while PPP has been gaining ground among those who plan to vote. Campaigners for the PNC have gone quiet while those of PPP have been very active. There does not seem to be much PNC presence on the ground, not even in campaign paraphernalia (posters and the like). The campaign has become a shelf of what it was in 2016 and 2018. PNC supporters say it appears that the party or its leadership seems incapable of defending its interest in too many LAAs and are querying why likeable political figures are not on the campaign trail or not seen publicly. 
 

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Each LAA is divided into half first past the post constituency seats and half PR (top up) seats. The number of seats in each LAA varies with the size of the population. 
The PPP is the only political party contesting all seats and all LAAs. The PPP is not facing a contest in over half of the seats, including in Lethem where the PNC had a vibrant presence in 2018. The PPP has won 13 LAAs thru default. No contests will impact on the total number as well as percentage of votes garnered by the PPP. 
Based on the findings of the survey, the PPP has been making voter gains in every LAA and in every constituency. The PPP is projected to wrest seats (and LAAs) held by the APNU in 2016 and or in 2018. The APNU is not projected to capture any seat (or LAA) won by the PPP in 2016 or 2018. Gains made by the APNU-AFC coalition in 2016 and 2018 are being reversed with voters complaining about a lack of PNC campaign presence; AFC is not contesting this election. Voters complain they have not been seeing an active public presence of well-known figures like Roysdale Forde, Christopher Jones, Amanda Walton-Desir, Volda Lawrence, Ganesh Mahipal, Ubraj Narine, among others, that could have boosted the status and support of the party. 
 
The PPP is making gains because of its “performance” and the popularity of its two leading political leaders President Irfaan Ali and Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo as well as Civic leader Prime Minister Mark Phillips. The APNU (PNC) has lost ground to the PPP primarily because of what supporters say is uninspiring leadership. They say a new leader in the form of Roysdale Forde or Amanza or Volda Lawrence would have stemmed and or recover losses. They have very high approval ratings in the base. In addition, Forde has wide racial cross-over appeal. 
 

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Based on the findings of voter support, PPP is projected to retain the five municipalities it won in 2018. Bartica, held by the PNC, has become a toss-up. PPP is also making gains in votes in Linden and seats in New Amsterdam and Georgetown.  New Amsterdam is a close fight with PNC ahead; Mahdia is also a close contest with the arson tragedy inserting uncertainty in the outcome. The PPP is also putting up a stiff contest in Georgetown where the PNC is fighting hard to stem losses. Voters in Georgetown, like elsewhere, complain about unsuitable leadership and poor choice of candidates that is also negatively impacting party support nationwide. 
 
The newly formed Independent Citizens for Progress (led by media personality Bobby Viera) is attracting votes from PNC and could win seats in Georgetown. In Constituency 13, for example, Jamal Adams is doing quite well against Winston Harding with the PPP candidate trailing way behind. Harding’s name is embroiled in a controversy that has hurt the electoral fortune of himself and the party. 
 
Aside from the municipalities, PPP has also made gains in votes and seats in several NDCs held by APNU. The PPP is on course to winning 75% constituencies (of 610) and 80% of the total seats  (1220) – an unprecedented victory in the history of the nation.